Investigators: Patrick L. Kinney¹, Christopher Small¹, William D. Solecki², David Werth³, Roni Avissar³, Christian Hogrefe⁴, Michael Ku⁵, Kevin Civerolo⁵, Cynthia Rosenzweig⁶, Joyce E. Rosenthal¹, Kim Knowlton¹, Anjali Puri¹, Stuart Gaffin¹, Tracey Holloway¹, Richard Goldberg⁶, Barry Lynn⁶

Institutions: Columbia University¹, Montclair State University², Duke University³, State University of NY at Albany⁴, NYS Dept. of Environmental Conservation⁵, NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies⁶

Contact: Joyce Rosenthal: jr438@columbia.edu; (212) 305-2853

Project Period: 9/1/2001-3/31/2004

Objectives: Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles represent two significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. Both of these stressors may be impacted by future changes in the global climate as well as continued expansion of human-dominated land uses in the region. To date, there has been little effort to link climate change and land use/land cover (LU/LC) models in assessments of potential future impacts of heat stress and air quality.

The proposed study will link human dimension and natural sciences models describing the behaviors of these systems to yield improved tools for assessing the future public health impacts of climate change in the context of existing environmental stressors. The model will be applied to the 31 county NY metropolitan east coast (MEC) region. The following questions will be addressed:

1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of LU/LC and climate change in the MEC region?
   
2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O₃) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 mm in diameter (PM_2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region?
   
3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the MEC region?
   
4. How might projected future human exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the MEC region?
   
   

Approach: An integrated model will be developed linking models for LU/LC, global climate change, regional climate change, atmospheric chemistry and pollution transport, and the impacts of heat stress and air quality on public health. Three scenarios of LU/LC change and two global climate scenarios (run with the GISS GCM) will be analyzed. Impacts will be examined during the decades of the 2020's, 2050's and 2080's.

Expected Results: The research will provide improved tools for integrated assessments of future public health risks due to heat and air quality changes driven by climate change/variability and changes in land use. In addition, the research will lead to a better understanding of the driving forces behind long-term environmental changes, and the role played by socio-economic and demographic factors in the resulting human impacts.